Astonishing 12 Month Target Prices for CU Reported on BMO InvestorLine: Should I Buy?!

Earlier this year, CU split its shares in a get 1 for every 1 you already own offer. Ever since I’ve been keeping a closer eye on this very conservative stock trying to decide whether to sell part of my position. (It’s up 49% over what I bought it for.) When I looked at the 12 month target prices today, however, I was astonished.

What is Canadian Utilities Trading At?

Today, CU is trading at about $37.95 per share. It’s been in a range of about $34-38 per share since the split.

What are the 12 Month Target Prices from the Analysts for CU?

That’s why I got a shock when I took a peek at the 12 month target prices for Canadian Utilities on InvestorLine.

How to Look Up 12 Month Target Prices on InvestorLine

To see these values,

  1. From the Quotes & Tools tab, select Quotes +.
  2. In the Symbol field, type CU.
  3. Click on the Go button.
  4. Scroll down to the box on the right side of the screen with Recommendations and 12 mo. Target Price.
  5. Select the 12 mo. Target Price tab.

Be amazed!

The target prices listed are $74-$88! Wow! I guess I should hold on for the ride.

Or so I thought until I looked at the Issue Date for each of these pieces of advice. They all pre-date the split. Yep, that’s all it is. BMO InvestorLine didn’t ask the Sources to update their information in light of the split, so the old pre-split numbers are still reported.

Please Use Your Brain (and Common Sense) When Researching Stocks

To me it was obvious what was going on. But another investor might not be so lucky. If you hadn’t already held CU through the split, you might not know that it had happened. After all, the graph of the trading prices for the last year has been split-adjusted so there’s no obvious clue there. The 52-week highs and lows are also reported split adjusted.

All I can suggest is if you see a wild mismatch between price and target price, dig a bit deeper. If you go back through the annual news for CU you’ll find the split. If you look at the Charts you can find the split.

How to Look Up Stock Split History on InvestorLine

  1. From the Quotes & Tools tab, select Quotes +.
  2. In the Symbol field, type CU.
  3. Click on the Go button.
  4. Click on the Charts tab.
  5. Click on the blue Events button with the small down-facing arrowhead.
  6. Select Splits with a click.
  7. On the chart will be an inconspicuous S with a circle around it. If you hover the cursor over it, you will see a comment.
    For example, this one says
    “Stock split
    June 17, 2013
    Executed a 0.5 Split”

(That means that they issued 1 additional share for every existing share.)

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How We Cancelled Our Water Heater Rental and Installed Our Own Tank

When we bought our current house it came with a water heater tank rented from (then) Enbridge. Soon after the rental contract was shifted to Direct Energy. No one changed the tank though. It was ancient and getting older. Eventually we cancelled our water tank rental and had our own tank installed. Here’s why.

Ancient Water Heater Tank Struggles On

According to the information on the side of the tank, our water heater was installed by Consumers Gas in August 1991. We live in an area with hard water so goodness knows how much scale had deposited in the tank over the years. I have no reason to believe the previous owners had followed the required maintenance practice of flushing the tank regularly. (A neighbour whose tank finally failed found there was over a foot of solid scale at the bottom when the tank was cut open.)

I started hearing stories from relatives and friends of tanks of this age suddenly failing, often when the owners were away. Often their basement was damaged by flooding. Our tank is in an unfinished part of our basement with a clear short run to the floor drain but even so it made me nervous to hear.

Rent Versus Buy for a Water Heater Tank

I knew I wanted our tank replaced before anything nasty happened.

At that time, we were renting the tank for $14.93 per month (including the HST.) Yes, we were paying almost $180 a year for a tank that was almost 20 years old!

It was not necessarily going to be easy to convince Direct Energy to replace the tank because it wasn’t broken yet. If we could convince them, we knew the rental cost per month would increase.

The other option was to buy and install our own tank.

Checking Prices and Warranties

We did a bit of scouting around online looking at prices and warranties. To be honest, we could have spent more time and been more thorough. But we saw an offer that looked good and went with it.

Home Depot at that time was selling 40 gallon natural gas water heater tanks with three levels of quality. A 6-year tank, a 9-year tank and a 12-year tank. From reading reviews and consumer information, it appeared that usually the difference between tanks is the thickness of the walls and parts and the use of one or more sacrificial anodes. All of these things are intended to increase a tank’s life by slowing down how quickly it rusts out. Since we wanted a tank that could last as long as possible (since labour costs are a big part of tank replacement costs) we went with the 12-year tank. (If they’d offered a longer life we probably would have bought it.)

The warranty offered by Home Depot if you had the tank installed by their Installation Services department was great. For the 6- and 9-year tanks, the tanks and functional parts were only guaranteed for the 6 and 9 year expected life, but the labour was also covered. For the 12-year tank, the warranty covers the tank and functional parts and LABOUR not just for 12 years, but for life! Their tagline is “The last hot water heater you’ll ever buy!”

Do we realistically expect to be able to hold Home Depot to that warranty if the tank has problems in, say, 15 years? No. But it sounds great on paper! (We do have a copy of the information in writing but I suspect there is some way it can be weaseled out of.)

What this warranty really suggests to me is that the tank is probably of a reasonable quality.

Installation Is Easier for a Replacement Water Heater Tank

Our installation costs were not that high. We were replacing a natural gas water heater tank with another of the same. Due to some changes in the shape and height of tanks over the years a small amount of pipefitting adjustment was needed. However the actual gas lines were already in place, etc, which means the required work was minimal.

What Did It Cost to Replace our 40 Gallon Natural Gas Water Heater Tank?

All in, taxes, delivery, tank, installation, and removal of the old tank from the basement to the great out of doors, cost us $910.90. Probably not the best deal available but it was acceptable to us.

What Did We Do With Our Old Tank?

Believe it or not, Direct Energy wanted back the old tank! When I phoned them to cancel our rental they told us they would pick up the tank for free or we could deliver it to one of their depots. (There may be a cost now for tank pickup. Check your contract.) We opted to have them pick it up.

Ever mindful of the horror stories I read in The Star about water heaters I didn’t really relax till they picked it up about a week later. I even kept a tarpaulin over it to keep the snow off just in case. Fortunately in my case there was absolutely no problem with Direct Energy.

When Will We Payout the Water Tank?

The rental cost for our old tank was $12.99 per month plus HST, so just over $14.93 per month. At $179.26 per year the payout on the new tank would take a long time: about 5 years.

It’s important to remember though that the reason we replaced the tank was

  • we thought it would leak and damage our basement at any time
  • the rental fee for a new tank would be much higher

 

At the time, a new rental from Direct Energy would be about $25 per month. At that rate, the tank would payout in about 3 years.

Yes, technically I should include the value that money could have earned if invested. I didn’t. I’m mathematically lazy.

Having Control of My Water Heater Costs Appeals to Me

I’m a control freak. I enjoy feeling in control. I like knowing that no one can arbitrarily raise the cost of my water heater.

Do We Regret Buying Our Own Water Heater?

We had our water heater installed in December 2010. Two and a half years later it’s still working well. So we’ve almost paid it out. After December if it breaks and we have to pay to replace it, we’ll be no worse off than if we rented. If it doesn’t break, we will start saving money each month versus renting.

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Do you own or rent a water heater? Is it a tank or a “tankless” system? Please share your views with a comment.