Tag Archives: XIC

Why Buying an Index Fund ETF Must be for the Long Term Not for a “One Year Wonder”

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Back in 2014, I had some RRSP cash to invest in the equities side of my portfolio but I didn’t have any particular companies in mind. Instead, I gradually bought $24 295 worth of XIC an, ETF that tries to reflect the entire S&P TSX Composite index. Looking back on how it performed in 2015, I decided yet again that Index Fund ETFs are most suited to someone investing for the long-term, such as a distant retirement, rather than for the short term or just one year.

Whether Markets Rise or Fall, Dividends Still Get Paid by Most Companies

Many of the companies on the TSX S&P Composite Index list pay dividends. These include Canada’s big banks, telecoms like Bell and Telus, and old established utilities like Fortis and Canadian Utilities. An ETF that mirrors holding those companies, like XIC, usually will pay distributions to unit holders based on the dividends and other income it receives.

What Was My (Quick and Dirty) Yield on Investment for XIC in 2015?

In 2015, my actual distribution payments totaled $674.64.

While it’s not a particularly accurate way to calculate my return on investment, if I just divide my distributions by the amount I spent on XIC units in 2014, I get a percentage of 2.78%.

This is a bit different than today’s (January 6, 2016) quote for XIC on RBC Direct Investing, which says I will get 3.24%.

Why is my number lower? Because I spent more to get the same distribution.

What Happened to the Unit Value of XIC During 2015?

You see, the TSX had a difficult year in 2015. Its overall value dropped, at least on paper. I bought my units of XIC in 2014 at a rough average cost of $23.14 each.

Today, at this moment, on January 6 2016 they are worth 20.20 each.

Sigh. They’ve dropped in value by $2.94 each. And that’s not even factoring in any inflation and what not for the year between when I bought them and today.

If I Needed That Money In One Year, What Alternative Investment Might Have Been Better?

It doesn’t matter much to me that on paper my XIC units are worth less today than when I bought them. That’s because I don’t need the cash today so I don’t need to sell them and make that paper loss a real loss.

But what if I had been investing for the short term? What if I did need the cash today?

Well, I likely would have invested the same $24 295 in 2014 in some one-year GICs. I did buy quite a few GICs that year so I can find an average rate for 1-year certificates. On average, I invested at a rate of 1.91% for 1-year GICs in 2014.

So if I had put my money in GICs, on January 1 2016, I would have had all of my principal returned to me ($24 295) and I would have received $464 in interest.

You can see that the GIC interest is $210.61 less than the XIC distributions.

But the XIC loss of principal if I had sold the units today would be $3 087.

Ouch!

The lesson is obvious to me. Don’t invest in an index fund ETF for the very short term unless you are prepared to accept the possibility of a large, real drop in value. I wouldn’t risk $3 087 to gain $211 in interest/dividend distributions over a one-year period.

That said, my XIC investment is supposed to be needed in 20 or more years. So I’ll let it putter along, paying the 0.10% expense ratio and hopefully over that length of time, the capital value of the units will have increased at least enough to cover inflation and even better enough to generate a capital gain and profit.

Just Out of Curiosity, How Much Did Bell Do Better than a GIC and than XIC Over 2015?

I noticed when I looked at this particular account, that in 2014, I also bought about $25 000 of BCE stock. It was paying dividends to yield about 4.92% at my purchase price. The actual dividend per share has increased since then, so it’s still yielding about 4.77% today, January 6 2016.

The shares were bought at $50.25 in mid-2014. They are trading for $54.50 right now, today, January 6 2016. So they have appreciated in value by $4.25 each.

Too bad there was no way to know that in advance, or to be sure that that trend would continue (which it probably won’t) or I would have been very happy to have invested the full $50 000 in BCE and left XIC on the shelf!

Ah well, that’s why we’re supposed to invest in a variety of assets with a variety of risks and volatilities. I’m satisfied with having some BCE, some XIC and some GICs as part of my overall blend. Between them, it was a reasonable 2015.

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The TSX Is In Freefall: Time to Buy!

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Oh, boy, Santa came early this December! Based largely on fear and possibly on eggnog overdose, the TSX is diving for the deeps today. And, lucky me!, I have new money to invest! But what to buy? Enbridge just raised its dividend to within 2 cents of TD and ENB has dropped more than $2.50 today to bring it back down from the artificial high the announcement created. TD itself is still smarting from the effect of investors who weren’t happy they increased their profits because they didn’t increase their profits enough. But perhaps the best bargain of all is the entire TSX is down to bringing things like the index-fund ETF XIC down more than 65 cents to $22.20 (so far.) So what should I buy now the market is falling?

Should I Buy More Dividend Paying Stock?

I have some of our money invested into individual dividend paying stocks. The ones I’ve picked in the past are not expected to make any significant capital gains. Instead, they are expected to withstand market drops without losing huge amounts of capital and to keep their dividend payments steadily rolling out even during the lean years.

By accident, since all stocks took a hammering in the 2008/9 zone, all our dividend stocks have actually made substantial capital gains on paper in the few years we’ve owned them. But we only track whether their value has stayed above their purchased cost plus inflation. We don’t count on ever realizing that capital gain because we don’t expect to ever sell them unless the companies themselves become a bad risk. And if that happens, we’d expect to lose not only the capital gain but probably the initial purchase price.

Instead, what we watch with curiousity is the growth in the dividends. So far, it has been growing at a rate much greater than inflation. That’s necessary if we are to find them a good long-term investment. If the dividends lose ground to inflation we would have to sell part of our position to generate income in retirement, something we are hoping to avoid.

We are looking on these stocks as surrogates for long-term bonds or GICs. They are much MUCH riskier! However given the low rates offered for fixed income investments for the past few years we felt we had to start putting some money into equities.

So what about today with this pullback? Should I put my new investment money into more of these defensive dividend stocks? Or ….

Should I Buy More Units of a TSX Index-Mirroring ETF?

I like XIC. It’s the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF.  It tries to replicate the performance of a lot of the TSX. It has almost 2 billion dollars invested in it and it has a MER of 0.27%. It pays a distribution of about $0.45-0.55 a year depending on what goes on with the underlying companies. Morningstar predicts that means it has a 2.25% yield. (TD and ENB, by the way, currently have a yield of over 3%.)

There are other index funds that track the TSX. Some have lower MERs. Some are not capped. VCN from Vanguard, for example, has a MER of 0.05%. I’m not recommending XIC I’m just saying I happen to own some of it. In fact, my current position in XIC is suffering from a non-realized capital loss. It’s the only thing I own that’s in the red.

What are some of the benefits of buying an index fund with my new money during this slump? Well, it ensures I’m buying a portion of whatever is down in value that shouldn’t be. (because I do believe that the market doesn’t deserve to be down and that it will rebound.) It does pay that tidy annual distribution so I won’t be left with buyer’s remorse if I buy just before the market really goes down and stays down for a few years. (Getting a distribution or dividend makes it easier to hang tough and wait out dips.) It decreases the risk that I am putting all my money on a lame horse. And it will not upset MjonM. (Although he might question why XIC.)

All excellent points to consider.

And the Winner Is–

Well, fortunately I’m expecting to have some more money to put in later this month. And I still have some free trades in our non-registered account. So for now I pick: XIC.

But if ENB goes back down to where it should be, I might just wander by and buy some more with my next infusion of cash. That dividend increase is very attractive to an income investor. Or I might want some more TD. Or…..

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