I Doubt I Will Ever Fully Understand Fixed Income Investing in Bonds and GICs

We are ultra-conservative investors and are extremely averse to losing money. So while we have some money in the stock market we also have a large amount in fixed income investments. In particular, we have GICs and a Bond fund. And I’m beginning to doubt I will ever fully understand fixed income investing.

Weren’t Bond Returns Supposed to Collapse Last Year or This?

I’ve lost track of how many years in a row I’ve heard that Bonds are about to crash. Several people we know who work in the financial industry advised us to get out of our Bond fund two years ago.

As I’m a major procrastinator and ditherer, we didn’t get out of it yet. We did stop adding new money, though.

In 2011, our bond fund increased in value by about 8.4% after fees and commissions with no new contributions. (This was a surprise.)

In 2012, the decision to leave the money in the bond fund was a good one. (Good because we only need our fixed income to try to match inflation. We get our growth from our stock investments.) Our bond fund increased in value by about 3.75% after fees and commissions, with no new contributions in 2012.

In 2013, it cost us money. Our bond fund decreased in value by 0.93% after fees and commissions with no new contributions in 2013.

Then, something truly bizarre happened. Between December 31, 2013 and January 31, 2014, our bond fund increased in value by 2.46% after fees and commissions with no new contributions. Talk about unexpected!

By the end of February, the bond fund had increased in value 2.8% over its value on December 31. Colour me confused.

Why Don’t I Just Ditch the Bond Fund?

The reason I haven’t bailed on the Bond fund is because it’s part of a Defined Contribution pension plan. There are NO other fixed income choices in the plan, unless you count a Money Market fund that has been known to generate negative returns. So I would have to dump it all into the stock market, something I am very reluctant to do.

I’m hoping instead to slowly shift investments in our TFSAs and RRSPs towards fixed income so that I can gradually move the Bond Fund holdings into the market. But the other factor at play is that the market funds I can go into aren’t the ones I would pick for my RRSP. (E.g. they are not “buy the entire stock market with an incredibly low MER” funds.)

Why are GIC Rates Falling So Sharply In 2014?

I also don’t understand what happened to GIC rates in late 2013 and early 2014.  All through 2011, 2012 and early 2013, I would often see rates for 1 year GICs between 1.75-2.1%.

In 2014, I haven’t seen 1 year’s (on BMO InvestorLine) with rates higher than 1.65%. Even during “RRSP season.”

Does this have something to do with the slow ending of Quantitative Easing in the US? With the minor changes made to the exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan and the US Dollar? With the continuing Real Estate boom in Canada’s biggest cities? The Bank of Canada key rate is about the same. Mortgage rates aren’t hugely different. Is it Jim Flaherty’s fault? If so, now he’s retiring will that help?

I’ve been annoyed to discover that very few people report on fixed income issues. There must be 30 different articles on what the TSX did yesterday but I can’t find one on what Bonds or GICs did.

This is despite the fact that, according to The Ultimate Guide to the Canadian Bond Market, in the first quarter of 2011, the daily average trading volume in the Canadian bond market alone was 38.42 Billion dollars. Daily!

That sure makes my fixed income retirement savings look puny.

What Rate of Inflation Am I Trying to Match?

As I said, we’re hoping during this period of low interest rates for our fixed income investments to hold their own against inflation. We expect our growth (stock) investments, though, may have to help pull them back in the black.

I calculated our overall personal rate of inflation in 2012 at 1.6%. Over the period 2001-2012 our personal rate of inflation was about 2.3%.  Both are probably a bit low as the numbers used to calculate them don’t include the costs of food or clothing. So I’ve been mentally using 2-3% as my estimated personal rate of inflation. Since I lived through the 80’s, though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 11-20% inflation again in the future.

If our Bond fund doesn’t lose any ground (or gain any) from where it is today in March, it has earned enough this year to match inflation.

So what should I do? Bail on the Bond fund and stick it into the Money Market fund for the rest of the year? You do know that Money Market funds can LOSE money, right? That doesn’t appeal to me much.

Stick it in the Equity Market funds? While markets are at or near all time highs? Seems a tad risky to someone who is extremely risk averse.

Yep, I’m dithering again. I sure wish someone with a crystal ball could tell me exactly what will happen and when. For now, I expect I’ll just leave it in the Bond Fund and get back to work. Maybe I can earn and save enough new money to cover the losses when they happen…..

And I’ll try to work my way through the book In Your Best Interest to see what I can learn. (Science fair projects and Spring Musical rehearsals permitting.)

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Do you have a portion of your portfolio in Fixed Income investments? What information sources do you try to follow to keep up with this changing market? Please share your insights with a comment.

Why Defined Contribution Pension Plans are a Pain: Fixed Income Choices or Lack Thereof

Like many Canadians, part of our retirement income will come, we hope!, from a defined contribution pension plan. This is the type of plan where you choose what to invest in, hope it earns profits, and hope that by the time you retire there’s enough money in the plan to pay you something monthly. It is not the kind most people want, which is a defined benefit plan, which is (almost) guaranteed to pay you something monthly. It’s up to us (and you if you have one) to make sure our defined contribution pension is invested the best way possible and that’s what makes the plan a pain.

Lack of Fixed Income Choices in DC Plan Frustrates

While some plans swamp employees with too many choices to invest in, others, like ours, offer too few.

For example, here’s what we can invest in for the fixed income category:

  • a mid-to-long term bond fund managed by a major financial firm
  • a money market fund managed rather poorly by another major financial firm

Yep. That’s it.

Short Term to Maturity Bond Funds are Better Right Now

If you’ve read anything about the future of the bond market, you’ll know it’s at risk of a major drop. As interest rates climb, the rates offered on new bond issues will also climb. That will make existing bonds with lower rates undesirable. To bolster demand, the owners will have to cut the price they are trying to sell them for to offset the lower interest paid.

Say I have a $10,000 originally-20-year bond paying 1.5% a year that has 5 years left on it before it matures. New 20-year-bonds appear on the market offering 2.5% a year. That new bond pays about $100 a year more interest than the old bond. To find a buyer for the old bond, I would likely have to reduce my price from $10,000 to $9500 or less (5 years remaining x $100 per year) to find an interested buyer.

The interest paid on bonds has not increased by much yet. But it still may be necessary to offer a reduced price when selling old bonds just because the buyer thinks the interest rates will be rising. Unfair but true.

That’s why many people suggest going with short term-to-maturity bonds right now. Buyers are less likely to be worried that interest rates will climb high quickly in a short time. Therefore you might be able to persuade them to buy your bonds without offering much of a discount. and you could always just hold the bonds to maturity and re-invest at a higher rate when they mature.

So why does our DC pension plan not offer us a bond fund with a short average term to maturity?!

Even our bond fund manager is painfully aware of the risk right now. I’ve noticed if you look in the details about what the fund holds that they are playing some interesting paper games to try to reduce risk. They will do things like buy some 40-year term-to-maturity bonds at a ridiculously low interest rate to counterbalance buying a lot of very short term bonds. The result is that they can stay within their fund’s defined required range of age to maturity with less risk than if they invested solely in mid- to long-term range bonds.

Money Market Funds are Risky

Some people mistakenly assume a money market fund is like a bank account. You put your money in, earn some interest, and it’s all waiting for you when you want it out.

Wrong.

Money market funds invest in things like commercial paper. In theory, this is fairly safe and the funds are fairly low risk. They are not NO risk though.

In fact in the 2008-2009 financial fiasco huge amounts of commercial paper went bad. You can read up on it online in articles like When Safe Proved Risky: Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009.

Money Market Funds Preparing for “Negative Earnings”

“Negative earnings” is what you and I call losing money!

In a January 2013 article by Bloomberg, for example, it explains how some big investment houses are resetting the rules for their money market funds to allow them to drop in value below their nominal (usually $10) value per unit. The article RBS Changing Money-Market Funds to Accommodate Negative Yields.

Firms that are doing this include

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
  • Morgan Stanley
  • RBS Asset Management Ltd.
  • and various European fund providers

The move is driven by the fact that funds have been experiencing losses and ***are expected to have further losses.*** They want to be able to give you back less money than you paid when you bought the fund. That doesn’t sound much like a bank account to me. (Unless you had one in Cyprus.)

By the way, do you think the average pension plan member knows about all of this? This is why I think DC Pension Plans are a real danger.

Why Our Defined Contribution Plan Doesn’t Offer Truly Safe Fixed Income Choices

Some DC Plans allow members to invest in GICs. These guaranteed investment certificates ensure your principal is safe and offer a very low, but safe, payment of interest.

Our plan does not offer GICs. If I understand correctly it’s because people would put too much money into low interest GICs. Then, by the time they want to retire, there would not be enough money in their DC plan to buy an annuity to get a reasonable monthly cheque.

That tells me two things:

  • people are scared of losing what little money they have in their pension plan
  • the company hasn’t considered ways to offer GICs while managing risk

I think they should offer some truly safe investment like GICs but limit the total amount of the pension plan that can be invested in that category. The limit should change depending on how close a person is to retirement.

Pension Planning is Easier if You Have a RRSP and a DC Pension Plan

Things are a bit easier for us than for some members of our DC Pension plan. We have RRSPs in addition to our work savings. So we balance across the two plans. We can, for example, buy GICs or deposit cash in a CDIC-insured daily interest savings account within our RRSP. Then we can keep our DC pension plan earnings in the stock market, if we wish.

Many people are not that fortunate, however. Lots of employees do not have a RRSP or a TFSA for a variety of financial reasons, some good, most sad. What are they supposed to do?

Keeping Aware of How a DC Pension is Invested Is Work

To keep up to date on the types of fixed income investments offered in our DC pension plan is work.

In the olden days this work was done for employees by a financial specialist who would make investment choices for the entire company within the defined benefit pension plan. Now, each employee must do this work himself or herself. It’s a waste of time and energy. And frankly many of the employees lack the skills to do the research and make good choices. It’s worrying and it’s a pain.

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Does your DC pension plan offer good choices for fixed income investing? Please share your experiences with a comment.