Tag Archives: capital losses

Why Buying an Index Fund ETF Must be for the Long Term Not for a “One Year Wonder”

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Back in 2014, I had some RRSP cash to invest in the equities side of my portfolio but I didn’t have any particular companies in mind. Instead, I gradually bought $24 295 worth of XIC an, ETF that tries to reflect the entire S&P TSX Composite index. Looking back on how it performed in 2015, I decided yet again that Index Fund ETFs are most suited to someone investing for the long-term, such as a distant retirement, rather than for the short term or just one year.

Whether Markets Rise or Fall, Dividends Still Get Paid by Most Companies

Many of the companies on the TSX S&P Composite Index list pay dividends. These include Canada’s big banks, telecoms like Bell and Telus, and old established utilities like Fortis and Canadian Utilities. An ETF that mirrors holding those companies, like XIC, usually will pay distributions to unit holders based on the dividends and other income it receives.

What Was My (Quick and Dirty) Yield on Investment for XIC in 2015?

In 2015, my actual distribution payments totaled $674.64.

While it’s not a particularly accurate way to calculate my return on investment, if I just divide my distributions by the amount I spent on XIC units in 2014, I get a percentage of 2.78%.

This is a bit different than today’s (January 6, 2016) quote for XIC on RBC Direct Investing, which says I will get 3.24%.

Why is my number lower? Because I spent more to get the same distribution.

What Happened to the Unit Value of XIC During 2015?

You see, the TSX had a difficult year in 2015. Its overall value dropped, at least on paper. I bought my units of XIC in 2014 at a rough average cost of $23.14 each.

Today, at this moment, on January 6 2016 they are worth 20.20 each.

Sigh. They’ve dropped in value by $2.94 each. And that’s not even factoring in any inflation and what not for the year between when I bought them and today.

If I Needed That Money In One Year, What Alternative Investment Might Have Been Better?

It doesn’t matter much to me that on paper my XIC units are worth less today than when I bought them. That’s because I don’t need the cash today so I don’t need to sell them and make that paper loss a real loss.

But what if I had been investing for the short term? What if I did need the cash today?

Well, I likely would have invested the same $24 295 in 2014 in some one-year GICs. I did buy quite a few GICs that year so I can find an average rate for 1-year certificates. On average, I invested at a rate of 1.91% for 1-year GICs in 2014.

So if I had put my money in GICs, on January 1 2016, I would have had all of my principal returned to me ($24 295) and I would have received $464 in interest.

You can see that the GIC interest is $210.61 less than the XIC distributions.

But the XIC loss of principal if I had sold the units today would be $3 087.

Ouch!

The lesson is obvious to me. Don’t invest in an index fund ETF for the very short term unless you are prepared to accept the possibility of a large, real drop in value. I wouldn’t risk $3 087 to gain $211 in interest/dividend distributions over a one-year period.

That said, my XIC investment is supposed to be needed in 20 or more years. So I’ll let it putter along, paying the 0.10% expense ratio and hopefully over that length of time, the capital value of the units will have increased at least enough to cover inflation and even better enough to generate a capital gain and profit.

Just Out of Curiosity, How Much Did Bell Do Better than a GIC and than XIC Over 2015?

I noticed when I looked at this particular account, that in 2014, I also bought about $25 000 of BCE stock. It was paying dividends to yield about 4.92% at my purchase price. The actual dividend per share has increased since then, so it’s still yielding about 4.77% today, January 6 2016.

The shares were bought at $50.25 in mid-2014. They are trading for $54.50 right now, today, January 6 2016. So they have appreciated in value by $4.25 each.

Too bad there was no way to know that in advance, or to be sure that that trend would continue (which it probably won’t) or I would have been very happy to have invested the full $50 000 in BCE and left XIC on the shelf!

Ah well, that’s why we’re supposed to invest in a variety of assets with a variety of risks and volatilities. I’m satisfied with having some BCE, some XIC and some GICs as part of my overall blend. Between them, it was a reasonable 2015.

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How Are My “Defensive” Stocks Weathering the Recent Market Dip?

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Most people invest in the stock market to make money. I invest in it very reluctantly because I am afraid to lose money. However with fixed income investments returning very low returns recently, I have put some money into individual stocks most of which I purchased in 2011 and 2012. I picked stocks based on some professional advice which are considered “defensive.” They don’t have much potential to grow but they are expected to not drop as much during a correction as the overall market. Now in fall 2014 we’re experiencing our first real market correction since my purchases so I thought it was time to check how my defensive stocks are doing during this down turn.

Why Would I Invest in Defensive Stocks Instead of a Broad Market Index?

I actually do have money invested in some “buy the entire stock market” index ETFs. Most of that money is invested through corporate defined contribution pension plans.

I have savings, too, though, which are not necessarily intended for my retirement or even for the long term. With luck, they will stay invested for more than 7 years but if our lives take any unexpected turns they may be needed before then.

This portfolio is NOT intended to produce the same gains as, say, the TSX S&P ETF XIC. By trying to reduce losses I have agreed that I will NOT get the huge positive capital gains that an index like XIC can achieve. My goal is to get a slightly better return than GICs from dividends while not expecting to get much, if any, capital gain but hopefully to also experience little if any capital loss. (Obviously, I’ll experience a large capital loss if there is a major market collapse and I sell my stocks.)

This is NOT a portfolio for someone looking to end up with the most toys before they die. It is my personal choice because I am extremely risk averse but I’m also finding GIC returns unacceptably low at this time.

Yes, I know dividend stocks capital values may plummet as interest rates rise. I will have to accept whatever yield I chose when I bought the stock as potentially my maximum lifetime yield (unless there are dividend increases.) I may not ever be able to sell my dividend stocks to recover my capital. It’s like a type of annuity, though, where I might be able to retrieve some of my capital if I give up the income stream.

Anyway, as I said at the outset, I’m just curious whether they are behaving “defensively” during this market slump or not.

A Review of Some Defensive Stocks Performance During a Market Slump

This is a partial list of some of the defensive stocks I have invested in. For those who are interested, no, it does not actually only show the ones that are faring well: the others are faring the same or better. I’m just not sure whether I would be breaking any rules if I shared the entire portfolio online, so I’m not.

This chart compares prices at the close on October 14, 2014 versus on September 3 2014 when TSX was in the 15 600 range.

Company and Symbol Price at the close on 2014 10 14 Price at the close on 2014 09 03 Percentage change
Bell BCE 47.74 45.27 up 5.5%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 67.22 66.30 up 1.4%
Canadian Utilities CU 38.75 39.59 down 2.1%
Enbridge ENB 48.63 55.20 down 11.9% (more than the market)
Fortis FTS 34.57 33.95 up 1.8%
KBro Linen KBL 39.76 39.55 up 0.5%

Those changes don’t mean much, though without a comparison to how the TSX is doing. So I took a look at both the TSX composite and an ETF, XIC.

Company and Symbol Price at the close
on 2014 10 14		 Price at the close
on 2014 09 03		 Percentage change
TSX 14 036.68 15 657.60 down 10.4%

If I had invested $1000 in each stock on September 3 2014, the portfolio would now be worth $5951, which is about a 0.8 % loss. (Not including dividends and distributions)

If I had invested $6000 in XIC on September 3 2014, the portfolio would now be worth $5365 which is about a 10.6% loss. (not including dividends and distributions)

The Outcome of the Defensive Portfolio

So the portfolio is doing its job of making me happy by not losing as quickly as the TSX.

And the steady stream of dividend income has been significantly higher than what I could get from investing in GICs. (Please note that I have not replaced my GIC investing with this portfolio: I have a portion in these stocks and a larger portion in GICs for security.)

Do I Recommend Defensive Stock Picking for Others?

No.

I’m not a financial planner, a financial analyst, or a financial advisor.

I’m just a taxpayer who is writing about what we do with our money. For us, this is a reasonable way to invest. For others, it may be the worst thing they could do short of trying to skydive without a parachute.

You must find your own best investing plan. You may want to talk to a real professional for ideas: Internet websites like this one are only supposed to give you glimpses into other people’s money matters from which you can glean ideas to analyze and (usually) discard as inapplicable.

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Do you have any money invested defensively? How has it withstood this mild market correction? Please share a glimpse of your strategy with a comment.