Tag Archives: portfolios

How Are My “Defensive” Stocks Weathering the Recent Market Dip?

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Most people invest in the stock market to make money. I invest in it very reluctantly because I am afraid to lose money. However with fixed income investments returning very low returns recently, I have put some money into individual stocks most of which I purchased in 2011 and 2012. I picked stocks based on some professional advice which are considered “defensive.” They don’t have much potential to grow but they are expected to not drop as much during a correction as the overall market. Now in fall 2014 we’re experiencing our first real market correction since my purchases so I thought it was time to check how my defensive stocks are doing during this down turn.

Why Would I Invest in Defensive Stocks Instead of a Broad Market Index?

I actually do have money invested in some “buy the entire stock market” index ETFs. Most of that money is invested through corporate defined contribution pension plans.

I have savings, too, though, which are not necessarily intended for my retirement or even for the long term. With luck, they will stay invested for more than 7 years but if our lives take any unexpected turns they may be needed before then.

This portfolio is NOT intended to produce the same gains as, say, the TSX S&P ETF XIC. By trying to reduce losses I have agreed that I will NOT get the huge positive capital gains that an index like XIC can achieve. My goal is to get a slightly better return than GICs from dividends while not expecting to get much, if any, capital gain but hopefully to also experience little if any capital loss. (Obviously, I’ll experience a large capital loss if there is a major market collapse and I sell my stocks.)

This is NOT a portfolio for someone looking to end up with the most toys before they die. It is my personal choice because I am extremely risk averse but I’m also finding GIC returns unacceptably low at this time.

Yes, I know dividend stocks capital values may plummet as interest rates rise. I will have to accept whatever yield I chose when I bought the stock as potentially my maximum lifetime yield (unless there are dividend increases.) I may not ever be able to sell my dividend stocks to recover my capital. It’s like a type of annuity, though, where I might be able to retrieve some of my capital if I give up the income stream.

Anyway, as I said at the outset, I’m just curious whether they are behaving “defensively” during this market slump or not.

A Review of Some Defensive Stocks Performance During a Market Slump

This is a partial list of some of the defensive stocks I have invested in. For those who are interested, no, it does not actually only show the ones that are faring well: the others are faring the same or better. I’m just not sure whether I would be breaking any rules if I shared the entire portfolio online, so I’m not.

This chart compares prices at the close on October 14, 2014 versus on September 3 2014 when TSX was in the 15 600 range.

Company and Symbol Price at the close on 2014 10 14 Price at the close on 2014 09 03 Percentage change
Bell BCE 47.74 45.27 up 5.5%
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 67.22 66.30 up 1.4%
Canadian Utilities CU 38.75 39.59 down 2.1%
Enbridge ENB 48.63 55.20 down 11.9% (more than the market)
Fortis FTS 34.57 33.95 up 1.8%
KBro Linen KBL 39.76 39.55 up 0.5%

Those changes don’t mean much, though without a comparison to how the TSX is doing. So I took a look at both the TSX composite and an ETF, XIC.

Company and Symbol Price at the close
on 2014 10 14		 Price at the close
on 2014 09 03		 Percentage change
TSX 14 036.68 15 657.60 down 10.4%

If I had invested $1000 in each stock on September 3 2014, the portfolio would now be worth $5951, which is about a 0.8 % loss. (Not including dividends and distributions)

If I had invested $6000 in XIC on September 3 2014, the portfolio would now be worth $5365 which is about a 10.6% loss. (not including dividends and distributions)

The Outcome of the Defensive Portfolio

So the portfolio is doing its job of making me happy by not losing as quickly as the TSX.

And the steady stream of dividend income has been significantly higher than what I could get from investing in GICs. (Please note that I have not replaced my GIC investing with this portfolio: I have a portion in these stocks and a larger portion in GICs for security.)

Do I Recommend Defensive Stock Picking for Others?

No.

I’m not a financial planner, a financial analyst, or a financial advisor.

I’m just a taxpayer who is writing about what we do with our money. For us, this is a reasonable way to invest. For others, it may be the worst thing they could do short of trying to skydive without a parachute.

You must find your own best investing plan. You may want to talk to a real professional for ideas: Internet websites like this one are only supposed to give you glimpses into other people’s money matters from which you can glean ideas to analyze and (usually) discard as inapplicable.

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Book Review Count On Yourself: Take Charge of Your Money

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Browsing the stacks at our local branch, I found yet another book that looked interesting to me. As someone who only recently started consolidating, simplifying and hopefully improving our savings and investments, it looked like a worthwhile read. Here’s my review of Count on Yourself: Take Charge of Your Money by Alison Griffiths.

Tone

Very calm and self confident, with a conversational tone.

Ms. Griffiths is trying to ensure you stick with the tasks without getting frightened off by jargon or judgment. The book is full of short “case studies” which are really short descriptions of people and their finances.

To set you at your ease, she describes some of her own major money mistakes and often includes her family members as “case studies.”

Who Is Taking Charge of Your Money For?

The target audience appears to be 20-70 year olds. Because she is offering sensible hands-on step-by-step advice about how to set up a very simple but diversified and asset allocated portfolio, her advice fits most age groups.

I suspect the most appreciative audience will be 40-50 year olds who are starting to save money and who are uncertain about retirement and investment.

What’s Not Included in Taking Charge of Your Money?

Despite its name, this book is not about managing and re-paying debt. This book is about saving and investing for the future.

What I Learned from the Book

“Higher risk does not necessarily translate into higher return, especially over time.”

According to her work, a portfolio of 20% cash and 60% bonds plus 10% Canadian equities and 10% American equities has returned 8.7% per year over the past 20 years.

A portfolio of 5% cash, 15% bonds, 25% Canadian equity, 25% US equity, 20% Global equity, and 10% US small companies has returned 8.8%.

Portfolios between those two extremes returned 8.6% and 8.4%.

By cash, she generally is referring to GICs.

This was interesting and somewhat reassuring to me. Our portfolio is closest to the ultra-conservative one listed above, although we have had slightly more in GICs than in bonds.

This is similar to what David Trahair reported in Enough Bull: that GICs can form the backbone of a retirement portfolio.

Regrets

I wish the book had an index.

Would I Buy Count On Yourself?

I would buy this to give to someone who is just starting to straighten out their finances and their investing. It’s encouraging and practical.

Since I’ve already completed most of the steps in her book, I wouldn’t buy it for myself.

Topics In Count on Your Money include

Why We’re Not Talking About Our Finances

Many people are extremely reluctant to share information about their finances. This may be due to fear and frustration.

Getting Organized

  • You need to make a list of every type of financial account you have (include life insurance policies; home insurance policies; etc.) and try to eliminate any unnecessary extra ones
  • You need to make a list of all of the security information associated with each financial item (passwords; user ids; security questions and answers) and store it somewhere both physically and theft safe. If it’s in a safe deposit box can your spouse and one other person with financial authority get to it?
  • It’s a good idea to make another list of all your online access accounts from email groups to eBay accounts and their Userids, passwords and security questions. The passwords etc should differ from your financial passwords.
  • Within each type of financial account (e.g. a RRSP) you need to list everything you are invested in from savings accounts to ETFs

While listing all of these items you may find duplicates, things you can cancel, and cost savings.

Know Yourself

  • your time frame for retirement and major spending
  • your financial situation (do you have a defined benefit pension? will you get CPP or OAS? etc.)
  • your investment temperament (can you handle stress and risk?)

What Types of Ways Can I Save and Invest?

introductions to and explanations of

  • bank accounts
  • TFSAs
  • RESPs
  • RDSPs
  • RRSPs
  • RRIFs
  • non-registered investment accounts

Diversification

What kinds of asset classes there are and why you should usually have something in each.

Asset Allocation

She gives a detailed and important overview of what asset allocation is and how it may be the most important factor in your investment success. (She refers to it as “How many investment eggs in which baskets?”)

Fees

She explains how fees, particularly high MER and DSC mutual fund fees, can destroy savings. She points out clearly how high fees can make the suffering worse during a market crash and significantly lengthen the time it takes for an investor to recover from a market crash.

As someone who held a small amount in an index mutual fund through the 2000 crash, I can agree completely with that, even though it had a pretty low fee. (about 0.7%)

Easy Chair Investing

Her preferred method of investing dates back to a portfolio she tracked in a newspaper column called the Easy Chair.

Basically, she strongly recommends

  • investing in 3-4 low-fee ETFs
  • re-balancing your asset allocation every year

Somewhat surprisingly, she has numbers to show that the return on investment over the past 20 years (probably ending in 2011 since the book was published in 2012) was highest for a portfolio that included cash (as GICs), bonds (as a bond ladder or bond ladder ETF) and equities (only Canadian and US; mirroring the stock indices.)

ETFs

She actually names ETFs specifically and lists the best ones available at the time she wrote the book. (This is a bit unusual in personal finance books.)

She lists fewer than 10 for each of the three classes she recommends you invest in:

  • bonds
  • Canadian equities
  • US equities
  • Index Mutual Funds

She acknowledges that for some investors ETFs are not possible yet. She therefore names the best (at time of writing) available index mutual funds. No/low loads and low fees are a must.

Asset Allocation

She reviews sample allocations for different life plans and personalities.

Count on Yourself Portfolios

She walks you through the basic steps required to set up an ETF Easy Chair including short-listing which ETFs to choose to buy in each category.

She provides some advice for investors who feel they must also include REITs or dividends, etc.

She also walks through the basic steps for setting up an index mutual fund portfolio for those who can’t use ETFs.


At amazon.ca

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Have you read Count on Yourself? Did you like her Easy Chair approach to investing for the future? Please share your views with a comment.